What would negotiations with Canada actually have to settle after a successful Alberta referendum?

Short answer

A petition, a referendum, and negotiations are three different things.

What this means for Albertans

The main risk in this debate is treating one step as if it completes the next one.

A petition is not a referendum. A referendum is not a separation agreement. A separation agreement is not automatic legal implementation.

That does not mean a vote would be meaningless. It means a vote would be the start of the hardest phase, not the end of it.

What each side gets right

The pro-independence side gets the mandate point right. A valid process followed by a clear yes vote could move Alberta from ordinary political argument into a serious constitutional dispute. The Secession Reference does not let the rest of Canada simply ignore a clear democratic expression on secession [1].

Both sides can overstate. The pro side can imply that a vote equals independence. The anti side can imply that a vote has no force. The better reading is that a clear vote could force the issue into negotiations while leaving the outcome uncertain.

What would have to be decided

• Clarity: Was the question clear enough, and was the majority clear enough, to trigger a duty to negotiate [1][2]?
• Who participates: Which federal, provincial, Indigenous, and constitutional actors must be at the table
  3 sources

  [1][2][3]
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• Constitutional route: What amendment procedure applies, and what consent is required [1][3]?
• Indigenous and treaty issues: How would treaty relationships, rights, lands, resources, and jurisdiction be protected or renegotiated [1]?
• Assets and debt: How would federal assets, liabilities, contracts, lands, pensions, and fiscal obligations be divided [1][3]?
• Borders and movement: What would happen to customs, travel, residency, citizenship, and movement of people and goods [9][10]?
• Services and institutions: Who would run taxes, courts, policing, benefits, immigration administration, regulators, data systems, and public services during transition?
• Recognition: What would Canada and other countries recognize, and on what terms?

What survives both arguments

So the strongest source-backed answer is neither “Alberta can leave by referendum alone” nor “a referendum would mean nothing.” It is: a petition can open the process, a referendum can create a mandate, and negotiations would decide whether and how anything actually changes.